A machine learning approach identifies unresolving secondary pneumonia as a contributor to mortality in patients with severe pneumonia, including COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: Patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia experience longer durations of critical illness yet similar mortality rates compared to patients with severe pneumonia secondary to other etiologies. As secondary bacterial infection is common in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, we hypothesized that unresolving ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) drives the apparent disconnect between length-of-stay and mortality rate among these patients. Methods: We analyzed VAP in a prospective single-center observational study of 585 mechanically ventilated patients with suspected pneumonia, including 190 patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. We developed CarpeDiem, a novel machine learning approach based on the practice of daily ICU team rounds to identify clinical states for each of the 12,495 ICU patient-days in the cohort. We used the CarpeDiem approach to evaluate the effect of VAP and its resolution on clinical trajectories. Findings: Patients underwent a median [IQR] of 4 [2,7] transitions between 14 clinical states during their ICU stays. Clinical states were associated with differential hospital mortality. The long length-of-stay among patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia was associated with prolonged stays in clinical states defined by severe respiratory failure and with a lower frequency of transitions between clinical states. In all patients, including those with COVID-19, unresolving VAP episodes were associated with transitions to unfavorable states and hospital mortality. Interpretation: CarpeDiem offers a machine learning approach to examine the effect of VAP on clinical outcomes. Our findings suggest an underappreciated contribution of unresolving secondary bacterial pneumonia to outcomes in mechanically ventilated patients with pneumonia, including due to SARS-CoV-2.

Estimating stranded coal assets in China's power sector

China has suffered overcapacity in coal power since 2016. With growing electricity demand and an economic crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic, China faces a dilemma between easing restrictive policies for short-term growth in coal-fired power production and keeping restrictions in place for long-term sustainability. In this paper, we measure the risks faced by China's coal power units to become stranded in the next decade and estimate the associated economic costs for different shareholders. By implementing restrictive policies on coal power expansion, China can avoid 90% of stranded coal assets by 2025.

Bacterial superinfection pneumonia in SARS-CoV-2 respiratory failure (preprint)

BackgroundSevere community-acquired pneumonia secondary to SARS-CoV-2 is a leading cause of death. Current guidelines recommend patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia receive empirical antibiotic therapy for suspected bacterial superinfection, but little evidence supports these recommendations. MethodsWe obtained bronchoscopic bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples from patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia requiring mechanical ventilation. We analyzed BAL samples with multiplex PCR and quantitative culture to determine the prevalence of superinfecting pathogens at the time of intubation and identify episodes of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) over the course of mechanical ventilation. We compared antibiotic use with guideline-recommended care. ResultsThe 179 ventilated patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia discharged from our hospital by June 30, 2020 were analyzed. 162 (90.5%) patients had at least one BAL procedure; 133 (74.3%) within 48 hours after intubation and 112 (62.6%) had at least one subsequent BAL during their hospitalization. A superinfecting pathogen was identified within 48 hours of intubation in 28/133 (21%) patients, most commonly methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus or Streptococcus species (21/28, 75%). BAL-based treatment reduced antibiotic use compared with guideline-recommended care. 72 patients (44.4%) developed at least one VAP episode. Only 15/72 (20.8%) of initial VAPs were attributable to multidrug-resistant pathogens. The incidence rate of VAP was 45.2/1000 ventilator days. ConclusionsWith use of sensitive diagnostic tools, bacterial superinfection at the time of intubation is infrequent in patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Treatment based on current guidelines would result in substantial antibiotic overuse. The incidence rate of VAP in ventilated patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia are higher than historically reported.

Alveolitis in severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is driven by self-sustaining circuits between infected alveolar macrophages and T cells (preprint)

Some patients infected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) develop severe pneumonia and the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [1]. Distinct clinical features in these patients have led to speculation that the immune response to virus in the SARS-CoV-2-infected alveolus differs from other types of pneumonia [2]. We collected bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples from 86 patients with SARS-CoV-2-induced respiratory failure and 252 patients with known or suspected pneumonia from other pathogens and subjected them to flow cytometry and bulk transcriptomic profiling. We performed single cell RNA-Seq in 5 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid samples collected from patients with severe COVID-19 within 48 hours of intubation. In the majority of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the onset of mechanical ventilation, the alveolar space is persistently enriched in alveolar macrophages and T cells without neutrophilia. Bulk and single cell transcriptomic profiling suggest SARS-CoV-2 infects alveolar macrophages that respond by recruiting T cells. These T cells release interferon-gamma to induce inflammatory cytokine release from alveolar macrophages and further promote T cell recruitment. Our results suggest SARS-CoV-2 causes a slowly unfolding, spatially-limited alveolitis in which alveolar macrophages harboring SARS-CoV-2 transcripts and T cells form a positive feedback loop that drives progressive alveolar inflammation. This manuscript is accompanied by an online resource: https://www.nupulmonary.org/covid-19/ One sentence summarySARS-CoV-2-infected alveolar macrophages form positive feedback loops with T cells in patients with severe COVID-19.